In brief: Many people were pleased to see Donald Trump win the election, including a Frenchman who made almost $50 million by betting on the President's victory. He made the bets on Polymarket, a Peter Thiel-backed platform that allows users to bet on events using crypto. According to new reports, the huge winnings have attracted the attention of French regulators, who are now preparing to ban the site in France.
Polymarket, which received a $45 million investment led by tech billionaire Peter Thiel in May, enables high-stakes bets on major events using cryptocurrency. The platform claims that its prediction markets are often more accurate than pundits because they combine news, polls, and expert opinions into a single value that represents the market's view of an event's odds.
Polymarket writes that a huge amount was wagered on the US election: $1.3 billion on Trump to win, $827 million on Harris. In total, users spent $3.2 billion betting on the election.
A user with the account name Fredi9999 was particularly confident that Trump would win. They bet $28 million on the outcome across four different accounts, which shortened Trump's odds of winning on the platform.
Polymarket said last month that it had investigated the trading activity and not found any information that the user behind it "manipulated, or attempted to manipulate, the market."
Calling himself "Thèo," Fredi9999 spoke to the Wall Street Journal, claiming to be a wealthy Frenchman who used to work as a trader for several banks.
The prospect of losing $28 million is a scary one, even if you are wealthy. Thèo made his bets based on a series of September neighbor polls, which are surveys that ask respondents who they think their neighbor would vote for. These showed that support for Harris was lower than when respondents were asked who they would vote for. The WSJ reports that Thèo also commissioned their own surveys using an unnamed major pollster, which were "mind-blowing to the favor of Trump."
Crypto news publication The Big Whale reports that ANJ, France's gambling regulator, is now expected to ban local access to Polymarket in the near future. "Even if Polymarket uses cryptocurrencies in its operations, it remains a betting activity and this is not legal in France," said a source close to the ANJ.
Despite being headquartered in New York, Polymarket only allows users based outside of the US to place bets, the result of a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. However, a recent court ruling could change this restriction.
In other election news, a number of tech leaders, including a few that Trump has had a contentious relationship with in the past, have been congratulating the new President and signaling their willingness to work with his administration.