Chinese EV battery giant predicts Tesla's 4680 battery project will fail

bviktor said:

Musk is your typical "fake it till you make it" *****. Without any actual clue. If you ask him about fuel cells, he starts blabbing about burning Methane instead of Hydrogen because that's cheaper. Too bad that has absolutely nothing to do with fuel cells, which don't burn anything at all, and unlike burning Methane (or Hydrogen), are emission-free.

His biggest contribution to SpaceX was his "make it pointy" idea, and even that was borrowed from Sasha Baron Cohen.

That's how big of a genius Musk is.

To put things into perspective, 100 million cells are enough for some 73k Cybertrucks, if we assume that NONE of those 100 million cells were used for testing (which they obviously were) and the failure rate was 0% (which it most certainly wasn't).

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Blows my mind with the amount of hate I see on this site with Elon. He has done more for this country than our politicians. He has saved lives and pushed for the better of mankind. Yes he might speak faster than he thinks, but no one is perfect. He has a good heart and has exposed the crooked 3 letter agencies and saved free speech. He was right on many things, like FEMA and Trump. I won't comment on triggered users and I once thought TDS was a myth, but I was way wrong.

It is audacious and unimaginative, predicting the demise of your competition.

Plutoisaplanet said:

4680 cells probably will fail to be a viable technology for Tesla, but Elon Musk’s companies tend to have “impossible” goals that they achieve anyways. You can’t really know until you give it everything you have. Then if you succeed, it’s a moat, causing your competitors to have to try to compete with the “impossible”.

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Hyperloop promises are all gone as man on Mars. (The promises included a deadline)

Dimitrios said:

Blows my mind with the amount of hate I see on this site with Elon. He has done more for this country than our politicians. He has saved lives and pushed for the better of mankind. Yes he might speak faster than he thinks, but no one is perfect. He has a good heart and has exposed the crooked 3 letter agencies and saved free speech. He was right on many things, like FEMA and Trump. I won't comment on triggered users and I once thought TDS was a myth, but I was way wrong.

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Blows my mind the amount of love (I read that somewhere) people have for politicians when they don't even know who finances them. Left and right wings are the two wings of the same bird. Yes they say different things but the end result will be the same. More for their boss, less for us, just in a different way.

bviktor said:

Musk is your typical "fake it till you make it" *****. Without any actual clue. If you ask him about fuel cells, he starts blabbing about burning Methane instead of Hydrogen because that's cheaper. Too bad that has absolutely nothing to do with fuel cells, which don't burn anything at all, and unlike burning Methane (or Hydrogen), are emission-free.

His biggest contribution to SpaceX was his "make it pointy" idea, and even that was borrowed from Sasha Baron Cohen.

That's how big of a genius Musk is.

To put things into perspective, 100 million cells are enough for some 73k Cybertrucks, if we assume that NONE of those 100 million cells were used for testing (which they obviously were) and the failure rate was 0% (which it most certainly wasn't).

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Good thing Edison isn't alive today, the hate mail would be incredible, I can just hear it, "he stole all his ideas from Nikola Tesla, the electric bulb is a failure, already tried 2,000 designs, no-one wants to see moving pictures" etc etc.

Fact is, even if everything you said was true - heck, let it be true so I don't have to argue with you, Tesla, SpaceX and for that matter PayPal have all achieved remarkable things. Before Musk, they didn't in those arenas. Neither did anyone else much, other than at vast cost that wasn't viable (people haven't been back to the moon since 1972).

Suppose he knows nothing technically, all he does is push people, he's a ruthless exploiter of people, exploits other peoples' ideas, he wears socks with sandals, anything else you care to add, a few indisputable facts remain.

He said he wanted to make electric cars mainstream, and that is something that is at the very least a great deal more extant than it was. He said he wants to get Mankind off just the one planet, and SpaceX has revolutionized space missions. And, he's hugely rich. If you recognize those things, that doesn't mean you must be a mindless fan.

In this case, the 4680 battery project will fail. Well, that's saying it's impossible to make a cell 46mm wide and 80mm high that is reliable, at a profit. Seems unlikely to me, but if it is so - either Musk is leading that technically and is personally to blame, in which case the claim he knows nothing technical must fail as it's not a simple thing at all, or he's just getting other people to do all the work. If the latter there is no particular reason it should fail, people are ingenious, driven and capable, and past history suggests Musk is at least capable of hiring people who can do good work. It may well be late, have teething issues and various problems along the way, it's taken many iterations to get the Falcon 9 engine to its current reliable and simplified form (it is rocket science, after all). But that is not the same thing as failure, not by a long shot.

yannus said:

Hyperloop promises are all gone as man on Mars. (The promises included a deadline)

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Please quote a “promise” made about the hyperloop. What you said is a lie, akin to the MSM spreading blatant lies that misquote what Trump even said in the first place lol.

The Hyperloop was only ever a proposal and student science experiments paid for by SpaceX. There was never any real work done by EM or his companies, and they made it an open proposal BECAUSE they weren’t planning on completing it themselves.

But sure, talk about the Hyperloop instead of 4680. Or for anyone who wants to see who’s right, read the actual story from an unbiased source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop

Dimitrios said:

Blows my mind with the amount of hate I see on this site with Elon. He has done more for this country than our politicians. He has saved lives and pushed for the better of mankind. Yes he might speak faster than he thinks, but no one is perfect. He has a good heart and has exposed the crooked 3 letter agencies and saved free speech. He was right on many things, like FEMA and Trump. I won't comment on triggered users and I once thought TDS was a myth, but I was way wrong.

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Blows my mind how in love the far right nutjob MAGA people are with Elon Musk now. They absolutely hated him up until he decided to borrow the side switching trick from the Orange Cockroach. Now suddenly he's some kind of digital messiah who should be credited for all kinds of technological advancements with which he actually had nothing to do. It's hilarious, because Musk is the same guy that makes EVs, something MAGA despises. Most MAGA even believe he's the founder of Tesla and "owns" it, neither of which is true.

"He has saved lives and pushed for the better of mankind."

Uh yeah, how exactly did he do that? By overpaying a ridiculous amount for a crappy social media platform and turning it into a hate-filled cesspool with no guardrails? Yeah, Musk claims he's a free speech absolutist, but only as long as you agree with him.

Musk actually has a lot in common with the Orange Cockroach. Lots of failed businesses and ideas that never go anywhere.

Protip: We're NEVER colonizing Mars. Ever. Not in Musk's lifetime, not in your children's or your children's children's lifetime. He can suck all the money out of the rube investors, but it's never going to happen.

bviktor said:

Musk is your typical "fake it till you make it" *****. Without any actual clue. If you ask him about fuel cells, he starts blabbing about burning Methane instead of Hydrogen because that's cheaper. Too bad that has absolutely nothing to do with fuel cells, which don't burn anything at all, and unlike burning Methane (or Hydrogen), are emission-free.

His biggest contribution to SpaceX was his "make it pointy" idea, and even that was borrowed from Sasha Baron Cohen.

That's how big of a genius Musk is.

To put things into perspective, 100 million cells are enough for some 73k Cybertrucks, if we assume that NONE of those 100 million cells were used for testing (which they obviously were) and the failure rate was 0% (which it most certainly wasn't).

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You really haven't been paying attention to SpaceX.

ChrisH1 said:

Fact is, even if everything you said was true - heck, let it be true so I don't have to argue with you

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You don’t have to argue with him. I’ll do it for you. Nothing that he said can even be proven, and he’s literally just making **** up as he goes. He’s outright lying.

bviktor said:

Musk is your typical "fake it till you make it" *****. Without any actual clue. If you ask him about fuel cells, he starts blabbing about burning Methane instead of Hydrogen because that's cheaper. Too bad that has absolutely nothing to do with fuel cells, which don't burn anything at all, and unlike burning Methane (or Hydrogen), are emission-free.

His biggest contribution to SpaceX was his "make it pointy" idea, and even that was borrowed from Sasha Baron Cohen.

That's how big of a genius Musk is.

To put things into perspective, 100 million cells are enough for some 73k Cybertrucks, if we assume that NONE of those 100 million cells were used for testing (which they obviously were) and the failure rate was 0% (which it most certainly wasn't).

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Elon Musk does not talk about Methane in response to hydrogen fuel cells LOL. He talks about how stupid it is. It’s stupid because it’s economically impossible to be better than BEV’s. For hydrogen fuel cells to work, you literally have to convert chemical compounds from one, to another, and then back. The amount of energy loss is about as much as an ICE. Batteries have very good efficiency on the other hand… Just read here, and remember that the energy loss for HFC vehicles is electrolysis multiplied by fuel cell: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_conversion_efficiency#Example_of_energy_conversion_efficiency

You see electric vehicle charging stations and think about how much energy they use… Well just remember hydrogen filling stations are going to be using at least 2x as much energy and then no one will want to use those vehicles because customers would get a more expensive car AND pay as much as they did for gas still lol.

Regarding Methane, Elon Musk talks about that when referring to hydrogen powered rockets. I don’t think he’s ever condemned those, but he knows the difference.

And you talk about a joke Elon Musk made and you refer to it as his only idea. But you’re forgetting that he’s the one who pushed for and got rockets to be able to land. All the experts said this was impossible. Who is the stupid one? Do you think this is the only idea EM had, or maybe SpaceX and Tesla are so damn successful in such entrenched industries because he questioned every “old way of doing things”?

Kashim said:

Blows my mind how in love the far right nutjob MAGA people are with Elon Musk now. They absolutely hated him up until he decided to borrow the side switching trick from the Orange Cockroach. Now suddenly he's some kind of digital messiah who should be credited for all kinds of technological advancements with which he actually had nothing to do. It's hilarious, because Musk is the same guy that makes EVs, something MAGA despises. Most MAGA even believe he's the founder of Tesla and "owns" it, neither of which is true.

"He has saved lives and pushed for the better of mankind."

Uh yeah, how exactly did he do that? By overpaying a ridiculous amount for a crappy social media platform and turning it into a hate-filled cesspool with no guardrails? Yeah, Musk claims he's a free speech absolutist, but only as long as you agree with him.

Musk actually has a lot in common with the Orange Cockroach. Lots of failed businesses and ideas that never go anywhere.

Protip: We're NEVER colonizing Mars. Ever. Not in Musk's lifetime, not in your children's or your children's children's lifetime. He can suck all the money out of the rube investors, but it's never going to happen.

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The funny thing is that they said there would never be a mass market EV before and that was Tesla’s entire mission. Guess what SpaceX’s mission is, and the entire reason for every single achievement SpaceX has ever had? To colonize Mars. Well you can think it won’t happen, but who would trust some random Internet commentator over the person who turned the entire rocket industry on its head?

Also, he’s obviously referring to EV’s being what “saved” the world. Before Tesla, there was no viable EV. Hell even with the two “founders” by your definition, Tesla couldn’t produce EV’s. They were incompetent or lazy. That’s why after only a few short years, one was fired and the other one followed. Meanwhile the two people they first attracted to lead Tesla stuck around for decades and led as CEO and CTO. JB Straubel and Elon Musk are considered cofounders for this very reason.

And you completely misrepresent the MAGA take on EV’s lol. The only hate for EV’s is the government mandating them and pointlessly subsidizing them. Elon Musk has also ALWAYS been against this, because it would never create a viable industry. His plan was always for Tesla to make better vehicles than the competition in order to have EV’s succeed. This is why Tesla is selling 60x more vehicles than 10 years ago and 7.5x more vehicles than 5 years ago.

I would like to hear more technical details? Is it because earth minerals are too expensive to make them?
Do they not last long enough? Is there already a much better technology that has made Musk's batteries a yesterday of the batteries?
He said he gives them unrealistic goals to motivate them. If those come with rewards for being ahead of time, why not?

Like Trump , we all know who Elon is, both quite good at what they do - Trump salesman , appealing to people with base emotional claptrap .Elon getting hold of some existing companies and pushing them hard
Both had failures and successes - Trump pushed the law more , but both did, think all mega corps do anyway .
Both pretty stupid outside their expertise. Well Trump is , ignorant AF

Point here is separating what you think of them as individuals and what they represent as a face of capitalism - You can throw Steve Jobs in there for all I care, also not good hearted soul IMHO

To the point at hand - If Zeng is pretty sure of his claim, he knows Elon, Like Donald can be manipulated ( Trump with fawning adoration ) So Zeng knows Elon will have a hard time throwing away sunk investment costs , especially with the goading , thus tieing up Scientists. researchers and Tesla money- You have to remember Elon was ripping money left and centre out of Tesla, even "stealing" assets of Tesla ( eg whole batch of GPUs ) for other projects where he has greater ownership

From my experience of producing such batteries - I don't FN know ( my experience is none )
But Elon does speak a load of BS - submarine to rescue kids , Car can drive from LA to NYC - was it promised every year from 2014 on ?

Living on Mars or whatever he babbled about
However this is a bit different, ie as above "pointy end" of actually doing something needed

Even though I refuse to have Farcebook , instagram etc . Zuckerberg with his unblinking reptilian eyes he can lick with his tongue , seems almost normal, you could imagine him doing his famous BBQ for you, maybe get a weird girlish giggle now and again, but won't be spewing stuff , trying to be liked , just a craft beer in hand as he turns the food

kiwigraeme said:

Elon getting hold of some existing companies and pushing them hard

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I’ve never heard of Elon acquiring a company besides Twitter. He has half a dozen companies he started… Maybe you’re talking about Tesla? Because he invested in and basically owned Tesla as the 4th “employee” LOL: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Tesla,_Inc.#The_beginnings_–_Roadster_and_private_funding

kiwigraeme said:

To the point at hand - If Zeng is pretty sure of his claim, he knows Elon, Like Donald can be manipulated ( Trump with fawning adoration ) So Zeng knows Elon will have a hard time throwing away sunk investment costs , especially with the goading , thus tieing up Scientists. researchers and Tesla money- You have to remember Elon was ripping money left and centre out of Tesla, even "stealing" assets of Tesla ( eg whole batch of GPUs ) for other projects where he has greater ownership

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You literally have just said nothing here, you seem to be assuming how well one person knows another person and are then implying that a business decision is then made based on a reason that was mentioned only by you. Nice try.

And no assets were “stolen” from Tesla. You just made that up. All he did was ask for Tesla and X to have their places switched the in line waiting to acquire H100’s. There is a waitlist to purchase these, and Tesla was ahead of line but not ready to utilize them, while X needed them: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/04/elo...hip-ai-chips-reserved-for-tesla-to-x-xai.html

kiwigraeme said:

From my experience of producing such batteries - I don't FN know ( my experience is none )
But Elon does speak a load of BS - submarine to rescue kids , Car can drive from LA to NYC - was it promised every year from 2014 on ?

Living on Mars or whatever he babbled about
However this is a bit different, ie as above "pointy end" of actually doing something needed

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You really don’t know much about what you’re talking about here, and that’s the real reason why you call it BS. It seems like you just repeat whatever you hear from others.

They have to keep upgrading the tech, with any costs passed on to consumers.

Plutoisaplanet said:

I’ve never heard of Elon acquiring a company besides Twitter. He has half a dozen companies he started… Maybe you’re talking about Tesla? Because he invested in and basically owned Tesla as the 4th “employee” LOL: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Tesla,_Inc.#The_beginnings_–_Roadster_and_private_funding
You literally have just said nothing here, you seem to be assuming how well one person knows another person and are then implying that a business decision is then made based on a reason that was mentioned only by you. Nice try.

And no assets were “stolen” from Tesla. You just made that up. All he did was ask for Tesla and X to have their places switched the in line waiting to acquire H100’s. There is a waitlist to purchase these, and Tesla was ahead of line but not ready to utilize them, while X needed them: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/04/elo...hip-ai-chips-reserved-for-tesla-to-x-xai.html

You really don’t know much about what you’re talking about here, and that’s the real reason why you call it BS. It seems like you just repeat whatever you hear from others.

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You are invested in defending Elon

Only point I see I got wrong is buying other companies - stand by all the other stuff
The GPUs were one example - and yes it's effectively stealing a resource - your apologistic nonsense is just that - the 2 companies were completely different legal entities.

If you link to your article it basically says you are wrong and Musk with only 20.5% shares was wrong and did it with engineers and implied other times, That share price drop 1% on news
Tired of people thinking we are dumb and don't check links
Do you run a company and take all the resources for personal use - Tax depart in every country in the world has something to say about that

I could list heaps of outlandish predictions about Tesla , robocabs , Mars -
Well lin a three or four more years , less see how many crewed missions to Mars.
In 2040s a million humans living on Mars - Maybe you believe that - maths does even add up
We had a dinky wee spacelab and now a space station

Tell me how you believe that is even remotely possible - 10000 maybe if everything goes right , huge investment etc.
Would you find a million people wanting to live in a dangerous prison - no swimming in the ocean, no wild life

Maybe you don't think Zeng is playing mind games with him . The same rescue the Thai kids , decided to falsely claim some guy was paedophile because he hurt his feelings

Like I said Zuckerberg seems pretty mature and sane compared to Elon with his ego and approval seeking behaviour

kiwigraeme said:

Like I said Zuckerberg seems pretty mature and sane compared to Elon with his ego and approval seeking behaviour

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I don’t like Zuck either but this is point on!

kiwigraeme said:

You are invested in defending Elon

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That’s because lies are easy to refute when you know enough. And you are invested in smearing him.

kiwigraeme said:

If you link to your article it basically says you are wrong and Musk with only 20.5% shares was wrong and did it with engineers and implied other times,

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When I said Elon owned the entire company, I was talking about at the beginning when he was the 4th employee. The 20.8% figure is as of 2019… Please don’t lie about what I say too dude!

One person in these comments was saying Elon wasn’t even a founder and people only call him that… But in the first several years, the company literally could do nothing without him so it’s absurd. It was decided by a court case that he was a cofounder for this reason.

kiwigraeme said:

That share price drop 1% on news
Tired of people thinking we are dumb and don't check links
Do you run a company and take all the resources for personal use - Tax depart in every country in the world has something to say about that

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1% change in share price could literally be from anything LOL. And Elon Musk’s companies benefit each other; it’s not one way. If he was stealing resources from Tesla, then someone would’ve sued him by now. The guy doesn’t even have any real “personal” time, he literally works more than half his time at 80 or 100+ hours a week.

kiwigraeme said:

I could list heaps of outlandish predictions about Tesla , robocabs , Mars -
Well lin a three or four more years , less see how many crewed missions to Mars.
In 2040s a million humans living on Mars - Maybe you believe that - maths does even add up
We had a dinky wee spacelab and now a space station

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And people said the same thing about the prediction from 2013 of Tesla selling 500k cars in 2020, the prediction that SpaceX would have self-landing rockets, the prediction that SpaceX would have a rocket with the greatest payload in history (more than Saturn V), the prediction that Tesla would have the best selling car in the world, the prediction that China would have real competition in the EV space, the Cybertruck existing, the Tesla Semi existing, utility level battery storage becoming successful, and more.

All of these “predictions” were outlandish at the time until they came to pass. Yes, self-driving cars and colonizing Mars is even more outlandish but they’re directly being worked on. The timelines are inaccurate, but those timelines were usually in response to questions asking “when do you think X will happen?”

For Mars, Starship is the vehicle meant to fly there. It’s designed to run on Methane for this reason. It’s payload is record breaking, plus it’s designed for refueling in LEO.

The upper stage has literally fallen out of the sky and lowered its speed this way by 15x before kicking on its boosters within a kilometer of the ground and coming to a halt. So when you say the math is impossible… Well SpaceX is changing the “math” on what’s possible. Also, the goal for getting a million people to Mars is in 2050, not 2040. And the goal for the first crewed mission to Mars is in 2029: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Mars_colonization_program

Elon Musk’s timeframes might not come on time, but the majority of the actual milestones do happen. The only thing I know of that the ambition for was given up was solar. But they do still sell it.

Plutoisaplanet said:

4680 cells probably will fail to be a viable technology for Tesla, but Elon Musk’s companies tend to have “impossible” goals that they achieve anyways. You can’t really know until you give it everything you have. Then if you succeed, it’s a moat, causing your competitors to have to try to compete with the “impossible”.

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Putting people into crunch mode all the time for no real reason is pretty crappy when Elon is the one that gets directly compensated for it while the people who gave up their lives for it are paid below the market rate. Competitors try to hire the best people they can and retain them rather than grinding them down until they leave the company.

Plutoisaplanet said:

That’s because lies are easy to refute when you know enough. And you are invested in smearing him.
When I said Elon owned the entire company, I was talking about at the beginning when he was the 4th employee. The 20.8% figure is as of 2019… Please don’t lie about what I say too dude!

One person in these comments was saying Elon wasn’t even a founder and people only call him that… But in the first several years, the company literally could do nothing without him so it’s absurd. It was decided by a court case that he was a cofounder for this reason.

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Fanboy harder.

"the company literally could do nothing without him so it’s absurd" They needed money, they didn't need Elon

Bobbydpue said:

Fanboy harder.

"the company literally could do nothing without him so it’s absurd" They needed money, they didn't need Elon

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No, the founders were fired because they weren’t doing their job. Elon Musk had to take over or the company would go bankrupt. And if all they needed was an “investor” then why didn’t anyone else succeed with an EV company? Tesla wasn’t the only one you know.

Bobbydpue said:

Putting people into crunch mode all the time for no real reason is pretty crappy when Elon is the one that gets directly compensated for it while the people who gave up their lives for it are paid below the market rate. Competitors try to hire the best people they can and retain them rather than grinding them down until they leave the company.

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Tesla’s retention rate is acceptable at 3.7 years, better than other tech firms. No competitor is doing anywhere nearly as good as Tesla is, so clearly what Tesla is doing is working. Also, all Tesla employees are compensated with stock options so they also benefit when Tesla does well.

Plutoisaplanet said:

The only hate for EV’s is the government mandating them and pointlessly subsidizing them. Elon Musk has also ALWAYS been against this, because it would never create a viable industry. His plan was always for Tesla to make better vehicles than the competition in order to have EV’s succeed. This is why Tesla is selling 60x more vehicles than 10 years ago and 7.5x more vehicles than 5 years ago.

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Lol, Tesla has taken 2.8 billion in subsidies since 2019. For being against, he sure has no problem taking them.

Dimitrios said:

Blows my mind with the amount of hate I see on this site with Elon. He has done more for this country than our politicians. He has saved lives and pushed for the better of mankind. Yes he might speak faster than he thinks, but no one is perfect. He has a good heart and has exposed the crooked 3 letter agencies and saved free speech. He was right on many things, like FEMA and Trump. I won't comment on triggered users and I once thought TDS was a myth, but I was way wrong.

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My mind is blown with the amount of sycophantism I see on this site. He has done more for this country than our politicians? Get real. I am more than willing to give credit to Elon for his successes, but this is ridiculous.
"He has a good heart" Really? You know this how?

"has exposed the crooked 3 letter agencies"

Nonsense.

"and saved free speech."

Lmao!!!! Bullshit. He just changed who was censored on Twitter.

" I once thought TDS was a myth, but I was way wrong."

No, TDS is a myth. TDS was invented by people who were unable to respond to legitimate criticisms of Trump. The first time someone used TDS on me was when I pointed out that no, Trump is not facing anymore criticism them any other President, Republican or Democrat, in the last 50 years. This was in early 2017. Since then, Trump has done even more to earn the criticism he gets.

Crabjuice said:

Lol, Tesla has taken 2.8 billion in subsidies since 2019. For being against, he sure has no problem taking them.

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Not from the federal government. Those subsidies would be from state and local governments that are not in massive debt and are investing in jobs for their local economies.

The subsidies that are far greater Elon Musk has been against are consumer subsidies for nearly all EV’s and are costing billions the government probably $10B year, and half are going to Tesla customers.