Some would argue that AI is a fad, the next bubble waiting to burst
Editor's take: Like almost everyone in tech today, we have spent the past year trying to wrap our heads around "AI". What it is, how it works, and what it means for the industry. We are not sure that we have any good answers, but a few things have been clear. Maybe AGI (artificial general intelligence) will emerge, or we'll see some other major AI breakthrough, but focusing too much on those risks could be overlooking the very real – but also very mundane – improvements that transformer networks are already delivering.
Why it matters: The revenue share figures for data center processors present a clear picture. Nvidia has experienced robust growth for years and currently leads the market. The primary question now is: what is the new normal for their market share?
Forward-looking: While no one doubts the heritage of tech advancements that IBM has made over recent decades, there are certainly those who've started to wonder if the company is able to sustain those types of efforts into the future. At a recent analyst day held at the historic Thomas J. Watson Research Center, IBM made a convincing argument that they are up to the task, especially in the fields of AI as well as quantum computing.
The big picture: Apple's M3 launch stood out for its focus on how people actually use computers, the lack of AI acronyms and the fact that they launched three chips all at once. It is only getting harder to compete with them. As with all things Apple, the M3 has been extensively covered in the press, but beyond the performance metrics, a few things stood out for us, and here's our thesis on the overall sector.
Why it matters: Five years ago there were only two companies that made CPUs, today there are a dozen. Most of the new entrants went after the big, profitable data center market, but now competitors are coming for PCs. Nvidia and AMD are reportedly preparing Arm-based CPUs for PCs. With Microsoft opening up the market for Arm laptop CPUs, this spells bad news for Qualcomm today, and potentially bad news for Intel over the very long term.
Something to look forward to: After years of monotony and relative stasis in the PC industry, things are starting to change. And man, it's getting exciting again! Earlier this year, AMD launched the Ryzen 7040, the first PC SoC with a built-in NPU (Neural Processing Unit) – otherwise known as an AI accelerator. Then a few weeks ago, Intel debuted its Core Ultra chip featuring its own AI accelerator. Now Qualcomm is putting an exclamation point on the AI PC trend with the launch of its Snapdragon X Elite SoC for PCs.